Defence in the Absence of Military Threats

See The Simons Foundation's page on The Canadian Defence Policy Review for briefing papers by Ernie Regehr, Senior Fellow in Defence Policy and Arctic Security at The Simons Foundation.

Defence in the Absence of Military Threats

The promised public consultations on Canadian defence policy are now underway. They are intended to contribute to the development of a “new” defence policy for Canada, to be released in early 2017. The process will engage Canadians beyond officialdom and the established “defence community,” and the outcome will have important implications for the kinds of key defence decisions that every Canadian Government faces – including major procurement projects and the deployment of forces overseas.

The following and subsequent briefings are offered as a contribution to the public debate. This first offering addresses the broad security context and its implications for current defence planning. Subsequent briefings will focus on defence at home, contributions to international peace and security, and key procurement and program decisions.

Any review of defence policy obviously needs to include a frank assessment of the threats and security challenges faced and likely to be faced – hence the opening section below on “threat assessments.” While all security environments face challenges, for Canada these are significantly mitigated by the good fortune of being part of an unusually stable region – the subject of the next section, “Canada in a cooperative security community.” A basic understanding of the foundations of durable security, at home and beyond our borders, is also key and is explored in the section on “National security as human security.” Some significant levels of consensus regarding the foundations of security and current challenges to them are necessary for setting out clear roles for the Canadian Armed Forces in advancing security and the funding levels required to sustain them (the subject of the final two sections of this report: “defence as aid to civilian authorities – at home and abroad,” and “funding security”).

Threat assessments

Official threat assessments over the past two and a half decades, the post-Cold War era, have been markedly consistent – invariably concluding that Canada faces no current or foreseeable military threat. That is not to say there are no threats to public safety and thus to Canadian security, but there is nevertheless a broad understanding that there is no military threat to Canada. No other state has an intention or interest in mounting a military challenge to Canada’s sovereignty or territorial integrity. Where Canadian sovereignty is challenged, and where boundary disagreements emerge or persist, they are not backed by military threats.

Already in the first post-Cold War decade, the Government of the day concluded in 1995 that "direct threats to Canada’s territory are diminished," and then it noted that future challenges to Canadian security would “likely be of a nonmilitary nature, economic, environmental and demographic.”  That same basic assumption prevailed in the 2005 defence policy statement, in which the threats of terrorism and failed and failing states received the top billing.  For the “Canada First” Defence Strategy of the next Government, the key threats continued to be global uncertainty, threats of terrorism, and failed and failing states with spillover effects on Canada. It characterized “challenges on the home front” in non-military terms, like natural disasters, terrorism, human and drug trafficking, and other public safety issues.

In other words, a key feature of the Canadian security context is the long-term consensus that there is no current or foreseeable direct military threat to Canada – and it stands to reason that the absence of imminent military threats would inform defence planning, just as the presence of such threats obviously would.  

The same applies in the Arctic. While it has become routine to warn of Russia’s growing assertiveness and military build-up in the Arctic, the Defence Public Consultation Document (DPCD), prepared by the Department of National Defence for the current Defence Policy Review, reflects a broad international consensus when it defines Arctic defence and security challenges also in non-military terms – the possibility of natural and human-made disasters, illegal dumping, a likely increase in espionage, and expanding demands on search and rescue. Potential military confrontation is not part of the equation.  Continue reading...